Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Do the stakes really matter?

Profit: $3

Prompted by a comment made in my previous log (I have been busy today, haven't I?) I wanted to discuss the stakes I currently play at.

I started playing with my own bankroll about a year ago. I started on $4 sit and gos. Now I'm on $2 sit and gos. In between I've won one MTT and played in cash rooms with as much as $50 of my bankroll on the table. So have I taken a step back in my poker progress? Well, let's look at some cold hard facts about my game.

I started with a bankroll of about $100 and over the course of three months I ran it up to about $500. At that point I started making proper entries into Poker Tourney Tracker and the stats are:


Total Buy-Ins: ($ 3043.85)
Total Gains: $ 3691.14
Net Gains: $ 647.29
Return On Investment: 21.3%

Take into account that the buy-ins figure won't be right because PTT doesn't track cash rooms properly. I've made about $200 on sngs and $400 on cash rooms, although I've played twice as much on cash rooms and are always gambling with more money. I would say that, in total, I've probably made about $1,000 playing poker over the last year (maybe a bit more, maybe a bit less. I can't be sure because I didn't start tracking my winnings until last November).

The majority of these winnings have come from sit and gos of under $5 and $10 cash rooms. The biggest ever win was $130 in a MTT rebuy event (my only MTT cash to date). The biggest pot I've ever won is about $75 in a cash room. The most I've ever lost in a single day is about $40. These are the cold, hard facts of my poker game - it's small ball and it's hard work. Am I good player?

According to a comment posted on my blog, only 5% of poker players make any money. I read that it was closer to 20%. Either way, pure numbers tell me I'm a good player. And I'm now starting to realise that the best part of my game isn't the game at all, it's bankroll management. Since I started last year I've haven't gone broke once on any account where I've put in my own money. I've taken heavy hits and withdrawn all I've had left a couple of times, but never have I emptied an account through tilt, which, frankly, is the only way you'll truly bust yourself. I've rarely tried to chase losses on the same day and I can't remember once going into a higher stakes room after getting beaten up on the table. These last couple of weeks for example have been a real test of my discipline. My bankroll literally hasn't moved for two weeks despite a lot of play and I've been desperate to go up to higher rooms just to try and make something happen. But everytime I think about it I realise that if I do that I'm gambling rather than playing poker and that's where I think I have an edge - I'm just waiting for the variance to turn its circle.

The sad examples I look at are people like Bluescouse, the famous mad player whose blog, at times, makes you think it's all made up. Of course, the blog only tells a tiny story of his poker games (mostly pushing with 106 suited) but it is a masterpiece in bankroll management. He withdraws money and puts it back in on a daily basis. He continues to siphon funds from elsewhere until he's also dead. And then, all of a sudden, he makes a miraculous recovery and his bankroll is back up in the tens of thousands. People try to give him advice but, obviously, he's not going to take it; he seemingly has no concept of money.

If the bluescouse blog is true, there is no question that the ending will not be a fairytale one. The swings are too volatile and the player in question is more a gambler than a poker player. He may make 200k in six months or whatever, but in two years will he have made what I (a novice poker player) am likely to make, about $1,500?). The bookies would put me down as the favourite.

It might sound cocky to say that but in these last two or three months in which I've hit poker roadblocks, I've really begun to understand it's just as important to lose as little as you can as it is to win as much as you can. The poker friend I used to talk about is now bust and out of the game. He lost all the money he won and maybe a little bit more - I think he had the classic gambler's case of not admitting how much they've lost. His bankroll management, like Bluescouse's was terrible and he paid the ultimate price: his poker life. He says he won't return to the game and I hope he doesn't because he knows it could do a lot more damage to him next time (and, friend, if you're reading this, you know you shouldn't be. Poker isn't for you).

I'm comfortable playing for $2. If I stuck a zero on the end of that number I know my heart would start to race and I would make the wrong decision and, worst of all, I would gamble. It is going to take time but time is something every poker player has but doesn't realise. Every hand I play, every bet I make, every fold I make and every pot I scoop is just one small part of the puzzle. The most important thing of all is to make sure you can afford those pieces to the puzzle because, one day, you'll see the things and have the pieces most others don't have.

Please note this entry is subject to a huge edit when I realise how badly put together it is and how much waffle I've actually wrote.

1 comment:

gniz said...

Actually, this post was GREAT and very, very true.

For another good account of gambler's folly, check out www.luckyjimm.blogspot.com.

You really are very savvy in what you've written. I think the sad fact is that most of us see poker as a way to make easy money--or to make lots of dough and be a high roller and never have to do a hard day's work again.

Believe me, there's no way on Earth that 20% of people win in the long-term. That number doesnt at all go together with what I've consistently read and heard.

But numbers aside, the long-term winners are few and far between. Even the better poker players tend to have other leaks, such as craps, blackjack or other gambling ventures.

Your bankroll management IS the best part of your game, and I reckon you can learn the other aspects well enough over time, as long as you dont go broke doing something stupid before then.

Like anything else, it seems to me that becoming a true poker player takes years and years of hard work, sweat and tears. And for the most part is an unglamorous affair.

But I admire you for your determination and discipline.

Aaron

www.gangstazen.blogspot.com